Well, if we don’t know anything else about this NFL season, we know that the Chiefs are in trouble.
With that in mind, let’s dive into why I think they’re going to struggle this week, despite the fact they’re at home against the Chargers.
Here’s how I’m wagering on NFL Week 15.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
I understand how power rankings are made and why lines are set for games, but that doesn’t mean I have to agree with the result of the process.
There’s no reason the Chiefs should still be power rated as high as they are.
They have lost four of their last five games, and they failed to cover their lone win in this stretch. The Chiefs have fallen short repeatedly in one-score games this season, too, but that’s a metric we need to reevaluate or at least discuss the nuance of the results.
K.C. lost one-score games to the Chargers, Eagles, Cowboys and Bills, but the Chiefs needed late scores to make those one-score games, and each of those contests ended with the opposing team taking a knee.
Those games were not truly that close.
The Chiefs haven’t won big moments this season. They have errors on offense throughout every game. It might be the quarterback, the play-calling is poor, a receiver drops a pass or the offensive line misses a block. It’s all a mess. They cannot score against a good defense and the Chargers have one of those, ranked 10th in DVOA and having playmakers at every level.
Additionally, Kansas City still has offensive line injuries, even if the team does get some guys back. Last week was also the first time I saw the Chiefs’ offensive superstars show visible anger about their lack of success.
On the defensive side, Kansas City’s defense does two things that don’t help the squad win games. Guys on that unit cannot rush the passer and they are awful defending third-and-long passes. Those go hand-in-hand, so it’s not a surprise. The Chargers’ offensive line is missing both tackles and quarterback Justin Herbert is getting crushed every game. However, they keep going and fighting.
Also, can the Chiefs’ pass rush take advantage? They haven’t all season. Why would it start on Sunday?
I don’t buy it.
PICK: Chargers (+4.5) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points or win outright
I like the Patriots to score against the Bills this weekend.
The Patriots are coming off a bye and the offense is cooking. It is 10th in DVOA and quarterback Drake Maye is playing so well right now that he’s got the second-shortest odds for MVP.
Maye throws a fantastic deep ball, and he’s excellent when pressured, which isn’t common for a young quarterback. He’s first in the league in quarterback rating under pressure. Even better for New England is that the Patriots pair Maye with a running game that seems to be improving by the week. They mix run and pass well, and after a bye week, I’d imagine the offense has thought of some creative ways to attack the Bills defense.
Now, on the other hand, the Bills’ defense is bad. No way to sugarcoat it. It is 22nd in DVOA and against good offenses, it has struggled to prevent scoring. It allowed 34 points to the Bengals last week and just a few weeks ago, it gave up 32 points to the Bucs.
Mix in 23 points to the Davis Mills-led Texans, and it has not been pretty.
Again, I like the Patriots off the bye to imagine creative ways to attack the Buffalo D. They will attack the porous run defense, and they won’t be hesitant to continue to use what works. Too many teams try to pass the ball when they should be running it.
PICK: Patriots team total Over 25.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
These are the 3 biggest games of Week 15 — for both fantasy football and NFL playoff implications
As we head toward the end of the NFL regular season, massive games for postseason implications intersect with critical matchups for the fantasy football playoffs. In Week 15, we have three such games between teams slated for playoff pushes. Here, I’ll break down those three games and the stakes involved for each team using The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, along with a fantasy football note you need to know for both sides.A blend of both worlds.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBuffalo Bills at New England PatriotsConsidering these two teams play in the sme division, I don’t think it takes much to see what the stakes are here. The Patriots are already the heavy favorite to win the AFC East after defeating Buffalo at home earlier this season. If they win here, it’s over for the Bills’ chances to take it back. A win here would also […]
Horníček v brance Bragy udržel v Evropské lize počtvrté čisté konto
Zápas v Nice rozhodl Španěl Victor, jehož gól vynesl Braze čtvrtou výhru a zvýšil její šance na přímý postup do osmifinále. Zato francouzský tým je v krizi, utrpěl osmou porážku v řadě napříč soutěžemi, v Evropské lize je stále bez bodu a nový trenér Gerardo Seoane, který se v říjnu vrátil na lavičku, ho zatím neprobudil.V Razgradu nejprve překonal Pavlenku nejlepší střelec soutěže srbský útočník Stanič. Probil se obranou a po hattricku proti Celtě Vigo vstřelil zblízka už šestý gól. O obrat se proti svým krajanům postaral Despodov, který přišel do Soluně právě z Razgradu. Nejprve vyrovnal šikovným lobem a pak připravil druhý gól pro Itala Vogliacca. Verdon z Beninu a Čočev pak nasměrovali za Pavlenkova záda dvě přesné hlavičky, ale ani Filip Kaloč se v sestavě domácích výhry nedočkal. V poslední minutě je o ni připravil Mythu.Midtjylland si v utkání s Genkem připsal už pátou výhru a v neúplné tabulce se vrátil na první místo. Belgický tým venku […]
Renan Lodi é consultado por dois clubes brasileiros, mas deseja Europa
Renan Lodi está sem clube. Foto Alamy.Renan Lodi vive uma das fases mais importantes da carreira desde que deixou o Al-Hilal em setembro. Aos 28 anos e livre no mercado, o lateral-esquerdo intensificou contatos com clubes de dois países europeus e trabalha para acertar um novo destino ainda nesta janela. Apesar de ter sido procurado por equipes brasileiras, sua intenção permanece clara: voltar ao continente onde construiu a maior parte da carreira. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADEDe acordo com pessoas próximas ao jogador, Lodi treina por conta própria depois de passar alguns dias no CT do Athletico-PR, clube que o revelou. A permanência no Brasil reforçou especulações sobre um retorno imediato ao país, mas nenhuma conversa evoluiu ao ponto de uma proposta concreta.Lodi mantém tratativas com um clube da Inglaterra e outro da Itália. As duas equipes apresentaram interesse formal, mas pediram sigilo […]
Šín pomohl Alkmaaru k venkovní výhře
Online magazín deníku Právo & Seznam.czCopyright © 1996–2025, Seznam.cz, a.s., Borgis, a.s., ČTK, DPA, Reuters, fotobanka Profimedia.Publikování nebo další šíření obsahu serveru Sport.cz je bez písemného souhlasu společnosti Borgis, a.s. zakázáno. RSS kanály serveru Sport.cz jsou určeny pouze pro osobní užití. Jakékoli kopírování, šíření nebo využívání obsahu RSS kanálů serveru Sport.cz bez předchozího písemného souhlasu společnosti Borgis a.s. není dovoleno. Dodavatelem obsahu serveru Sport.cz a osobou vykonávající redakční odpovědnost je společnost BORGIS a.s. Šiřitelem reklamy na serveru Sport.cz je společnost Seznam.cz, a.s., IČO 26168685.
USA’s Pre-World Cup Schedule: Belgium, Portugal in March; Senegal, Germany in June
The United States men's national team will play Senegal in a friendly on May 31 at Charlotte, North Carolina, in the Americans' next-to-last game before their World Cup opener.The U.S. has four games remaining before co-hosting the World Cup with Mexico and Canada. The 14th-ranked Americans play No. 8 Belgium on March 28 and sixth-ranked Portugal three days later, both at Atlanta. After meeting 19th-ranked Senegal, the U.S. faces No. 9 Germany on June 6 at Chicago.This will be the first meeting between the Americans and Senegal. The U.S. Soccer Federation announced the Senegal match on Thursday.At the World Cup, the U.S. opens Group D against No. 39 Paraguay on June 12 at Inglewood, California, faces 26th-ranked Australia seven days later at Seattle and closes the group stage back in Inglewood on June 25 against the winner of playoffs among […]
Introducing PFF Grade Pick ’Em: Predict the PFF grades, watch it live, win a PFF+ subscription
Before Cowboys–Vikings kicks off on Sunday Night Football, you can now jump into our first-ever PFF Grade Pick ‘Em contest and forecast how the game will actually play out. Pick the 0–100 grades for five spotlight players, using matchups, trends and performance profiles to guide your calls and then track how close you land as the data updates live. How it works 1. Make your picks Before kickoff, choose your predicted 0–100 PFF grade for each of the five featured players. It’s simple: the closer you are, the better your chances. Just tap into the contest in the PFF app, lock in your numbers and settle in for Sunday Night Football. 2. Follow live Once the game begins, the experience plays out in real time. Grades update throughout the matchup, letting you track whether your predictions are pacing ahead of […]
Related
These are the 3 biggest games of Week 15 — for both fantasy football and NFL playoff implications
As we head toward the end of the NFL regular season, massive games for postseason implications intersect with critical matchups for the fantasy football playoffs. In Week 15, we have three such games between teams slated for playoff pushes. Here, I’ll break down those three games and the stakes involved for each team using The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, along with a fantasy football note you need to know for both sides.A blend of both worlds.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBuffalo Bills at New England PatriotsConsidering these two teams play in the sme division, I don’t think it takes much to see what the stakes are here. The Patriots are already the heavy favorite to win the AFC East after defeating Buffalo at home earlier this season. If they win here, it’s over for the Bills’ chances to take it back. A win here would also […]
Horníček v brance Bragy udržel v Evropské lize počtvrté čisté konto
Zápas v Nice rozhodl Španěl Victor, jehož gól vynesl Braze čtvrtou výhru a zvýšil její šance na přímý postup do osmifinále. Zato francouzský tým je v krizi, utrpěl osmou porážku v řadě napříč soutěžemi, v Evropské lize je stále bez bodu a nový trenér Gerardo Seoane, který se v říjnu vrátil na lavičku, ho zatím neprobudil.V Razgradu nejprve překonal Pavlenku nejlepší střelec soutěže srbský útočník Stanič. Probil se obranou a po hattricku proti Celtě Vigo vstřelil zblízka už šestý gól. O obrat se proti svým krajanům postaral Despodov, který přišel do Soluně právě z Razgradu. Nejprve vyrovnal šikovným lobem a pak připravil druhý gól pro Itala Vogliacca. Verdon z Beninu a Čočev pak nasměrovali za Pavlenkova záda dvě přesné hlavičky, ale ani Filip Kaloč se v sestavě domácích výhry nedočkal. V poslední minutě je o ni připravil Mythu.Midtjylland si v utkání s Genkem připsal už pátou výhru a v neúplné tabulce se vrátil na první místo. Belgický tým venku […]
Renan Lodi é consultado por dois clubes brasileiros, mas deseja Europa
Renan Lodi está sem clube. Foto Alamy.Renan Lodi vive uma das fases mais importantes da carreira desde que deixou o Al-Hilal em setembro. Aos 28 anos e livre no mercado, o lateral-esquerdo intensificou contatos com clubes de dois países europeus e trabalha para acertar um novo destino ainda nesta janela. Apesar de ter sido procurado por equipes brasileiras, sua intenção permanece clara: voltar ao continente onde construiu a maior parte da carreira. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADEDe acordo com pessoas próximas ao jogador, Lodi treina por conta própria depois de passar alguns dias no CT do Athletico-PR, clube que o revelou. A permanência no Brasil reforçou especulações sobre um retorno imediato ao país, mas nenhuma conversa evoluiu ao ponto de uma proposta concreta.Lodi mantém tratativas com um clube da Inglaterra e outro da Itália. As duas equipes apresentaram interesse formal, mas pediram sigilo […]
Šín pomohl Alkmaaru k venkovní výhře
Online magazín deníku Právo & Seznam.czCopyright © 1996–2025, Seznam.cz, a.s., Borgis, a.s., ČTK, DPA, Reuters, fotobanka Profimedia.Publikování nebo další šíření obsahu serveru Sport.cz je bez písemného souhlasu společnosti Borgis, a.s. zakázáno. RSS kanály serveru Sport.cz jsou určeny pouze pro osobní užití. Jakékoli kopírování, šíření nebo využívání obsahu RSS kanálů serveru Sport.cz bez předchozího písemného souhlasu společnosti Borgis a.s. není dovoleno. Dodavatelem obsahu serveru Sport.cz a osobou vykonávající redakční odpovědnost je společnost BORGIS a.s. Šiřitelem reklamy na serveru Sport.cz je společnost Seznam.cz, a.s., IČO 26168685.
USA’s Pre-World Cup Schedule: Belgium, Portugal in March; Senegal, Germany in June
The United States men's national team will play Senegal in a friendly on May 31 at Charlotte, North Carolina, in the Americans' next-to-last game before their World Cup opener.The U.S. has four games remaining before co-hosting the World Cup with Mexico and Canada. The 14th-ranked Americans play No. 8 Belgium on March 28 and sixth-ranked Portugal three days later, both at Atlanta. After meeting 19th-ranked Senegal, the U.S. faces No. 9 Germany on June 6 at Chicago.This will be the first meeting between the Americans and Senegal. The U.S. Soccer Federation announced the Senegal match on Thursday.At the World Cup, the U.S. opens Group D against No. 39 Paraguay on June 12 at Inglewood, California, faces 26th-ranked Australia seven days later at Seattle and closes the group stage back in Inglewood on June 25 against the winner of playoffs among […]
Introducing PFF Grade Pick ’Em: Predict the PFF grades, watch it live, win a PFF+ subscription
Before Cowboys–Vikings kicks off on Sunday Night Football, you can now jump into our first-ever PFF Grade Pick ‘Em contest and forecast how the game will actually play out. Pick the 0–100 grades for five spotlight players, using matchups, trends and performance profiles to guide your calls and then track how close you land as the data updates live. How it works 1. Make your picks Before kickoff, choose your predicted 0–100 PFF grade for each of the five featured players. It’s simple: the closer you are, the better your chances. Just tap into the contest in the PFF app, lock in your numbers and settle in for Sunday Night Football. 2. Follow live Once the game begins, the experience plays out in real time. Grades update throughout the matchup, letting you track whether your predictions are pacing ahead of […]
Be the first to leave a comment