What if I told you back in August that Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson would all be watching the NFL playoffs from home?
Only four weeks remain in the regular season and, honestly, the situation laid out above isn’t too farfetched if you really think about it.
Burrow’s Bengals are dead and buried while Mahomes’ Chiefs and Jackson’s Ravens are literally underdogs to make the postseason. The Chiefs are as high as -800 to miss in the market.
If you knew then what you know now … what would’ve been the play?
“Oh, I would’ve emptied the clip on Buffalo,” one professional bettor told me from Las Vegas. “The only team that’s stopped Josh Allen is Kansas City. That’s the only one that matters. Mahomes is their kryptonite.”
And yet a path without all three is obviously easier.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
A Buffalo title bet before Week 1 ranged from +675 to +750 across the country. Trust me, I’ve got multiple slips already. And I’ve added more at better prices.
The Bills were 12/1 nine days ago at one sportsbook and I grabbed more.
My portfolio now has five bets from +725 to +1200.
The current Bills’ Super Bowl prices are +900 FanDuel ($100 wins $900), +860 Circa, +850 DraftKings, +850 Bet365, +850 Caesars, +802 Pinnacle, +800 South Point, +800 Westgate and +782 CRIS ($100 wins $782).
If you don’t believe in the Bills’ defense, I get it. That’s a valid concern. But every team in the AFC has a flaw. Denver and New England have young quarterbacks who have never won a playoff game. Jacksonville and Houston aren’t exactly rich with playoff success. Pittsburgh is meh. Los Angeles will be lucky to keep Justin Herbert upright with all its offensive line issues.
If the Bills bring their “A” game, they’ll be tough to slay.
I visit with “Schopp and the Bulldog” every Friday afternoon on WGR 550 in Buffalo and while the hosts might not share my over-the-top optimism — don’t blame ‘em — they understand how incredible their quarterback is at his best.
“The Bills wouldn’t be the Bills without Josh Allen,” Mike Schopp told me. “I can’t imagine the Bills going anywhere without their MVP. Allen is as important to the Bills’ chances as any player in the NFL is to his team’s.”
“He’s everything,” Bulldog Parker added. “Short and sweet. The entire operation continuing to be at contender status relies on him.”
How do Las Vegas sportsbooks view the Bills?
Well, Buffalo is favored to reach the Super Bowl at almost every shop. Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray told FOX Sports a few weeks ago that the Bills were third in their power ratings.
Longtime oddsmaker Kenny White has never wavered on Buffalo, either. White shares his popular ratings with me every week and the only teams he has higher than the Bills at this moment are the Rams and Seahawks.
The best part about backing an AFC team is that you dodge a ton of powerful grenades on the other side of the bracket. You’ll only have to face one of Los Angeles, Seattle, Green Bay, Detroit and Philadelphia.
If you’re looking for a futures position, I highly recommend a Super Bowl bet on Buffalo at 9/1. They’re a good team with the best player in a wide-open AFC. And odds are very good Mahomes won’t be standing in the way.
It’s the Bills, what could go wrong?
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
Champions League winners and losers: Man City soars under Pep Guardiola as Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid hits turbulence
The final Champions League matchweek of 2025 has wrapped up and it ended with a major headline-grabbing fixture as Manchester City won 2-1 against Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium. For Pep Guardiola, it’s a great victory that sends his side to fourth in the League Phase table while for Xabi Alonso, the loss marks a second straight in all competitions, with just two victories from the last eight matches.The game, which is nowadays considered somewhat of an intercontinental clásico, started with fireworks and an aggressive intent from Los Blancos as they wanted to make a statement.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAlonso is currently going through somewhat of a mini-turmoil in his first season as club manager with reports of discontent within the dressing room. Things have not gone well on the pitch either after a 2-0 loss to Celta Vigo this past weekend […]
NFL betting, odds, lines: Betting trends to know for Week 15’s biggest games
Both teams sitting high atop the AFC playoff standings — the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots — are riding 10-game winning streaks.Both are also playing at home in Week 15.And both are underdogs.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThose are just two of the intriguing NFL betting storylines heading into Week 15.Elsewhere, the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs — two preseason Super Bowl contenders currently on the outside of the playoff picture — are in must-win mode against opponents from Los Angeles that are on the right side of the playoff cutline.And in the Pacific Northwest, the Seattle Seahawks are laying nearly two touchdowns for a third time in four weeks — this time against a playoff-contending opponent with a dire quarterback situation.With all five matchups carrying postseason implications, we’re highlighting each in our weekly batch of NFL betting trends designed to assist with […]
Real Madrid perde em casa para o City e pressão aumenta sobre o técnico Xabi Alonso
Rodrygo marcou para o Real Madrid, mas não foi o suficiente (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)O Real Madrid perdeu por 2 a 1 para o Manchester City, de virada, na tarde desta quarta-feira, no Santiago Bernabéu, em jogo válido pela sexta rodada da primeira fase da Champions League. Rodrygo abriu o placar no primeiro tempo, mas O’Reilly empatou pouco tempo depois, e Haaland, em cobrança de pênalti aos 43 minutos, garantiu a vitória do time treinado pelo espanhol Pep Guardiola. Vale lembrar que o brasileiro Rodrygo não marcava um gol desde março. Ou seja, há 34 jogos. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADEA derrota, a segunda seguida em casa (o Real Madrid perdeu para o Celta de Vigo por 2 a 0 pela LaLiga no último fim de semana), aumentou ainda mais a pressão sobre o técnico Xabi Alonso. Não somente pelo resultado, mas pelo futebol […]
Papers: Frustration with Wirtz fuelling Salah’s animosity at Liverpool
The top stories and transfer rumours from Thursday's newspapers.Premier LeagueLiverpool are not planning to give Mohamed Salah an Anfield farewell on Saturday against Brighton as they look to protect their players transfer value - The Telegraph Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Sky Sports chief correspondent Kaveh Solhekol explains how a move for Mohamed Salah to Saudi Arabia may come about, or could he even be tempted by a move to Europe or another club in the Premier League Florian Wirtz's status as the future of Liverpool has angered Mohamed Salah and is at the heart of his animosity - BILD Spreaker This content is provided by Spreaker, which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend […]
After Notre Dame’s numerous tantrums, what’s the school’s endgame? A divorce from the ACC?
The more Notre Dame squawks and threatens like a 7-year-old mad at their parents because they didn’t get a stuffed animal at the state fair, the more reasonable it is to wonder whether there’s something more going on besides frustration over a College Football Playoff snub.Long-simmering complaints on both sides of the Notre Dame-ACC relationship have started to spill into the public discourse since Sunday, when the College Football Playoff selection committee surprisingly elevated Miami over the Irish for the final at-large spot in the 12-team field.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIssues that have been brewing under the surface for a couple years — largely tied which football games the ACC owes Notre Dame in its unique scheduling arrangement and when they’re played — have erupted like a pimple under a hot compress. Combined with the Florida State/Clemson settlement earlier this year that set exit […]
Fantasy Baseball Offseason Reaction: Pete Alonso’s signing answers questions for Orioles; raises more for Mets
After he sat on the free agent market until February last offseason, Pete Alonso found his home much earlier this time around. And, for the first time in his professional career, he won't be with the Mets, as he landed with the Orioles Wednesday on a five-year deal that will make him one of the highest-paid first basemen in MLB history. And it's a move that answers some questions for the Orioles lineup in 2026 and raises plenty more for the Mets. Let's start with what this deal means for Alonso's 2026 Fantasy Baseball value before pivoting to look at the fallout for both the Orioles and Mets lineups. It's an upgrade in park, especially if you take out the years from 2022 and 2024, when the Orioles had the most punishing left field dimensions in baseball. In the four other years […]
Related
Champions League winners and losers: Man City soars under Pep Guardiola as Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid hits turbulence
The final Champions League matchweek of 2025 has wrapped up and it ended with a major headline-grabbing fixture as Manchester City won 2-1 against Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium. For Pep Guardiola, it’s a great victory that sends his side to fourth in the League Phase table while for Xabi Alonso, the loss marks a second straight in all competitions, with just two victories from the last eight matches.The game, which is nowadays considered somewhat of an intercontinental clásico, started with fireworks and an aggressive intent from Los Blancos as they wanted to make a statement.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAlonso is currently going through somewhat of a mini-turmoil in his first season as club manager with reports of discontent within the dressing room. Things have not gone well on the pitch either after a 2-0 loss to Celta Vigo this past weekend […]
NFL betting, odds, lines: Betting trends to know for Week 15’s biggest games
Both teams sitting high atop the AFC playoff standings — the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots — are riding 10-game winning streaks.Both are also playing at home in Week 15.And both are underdogs.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThose are just two of the intriguing NFL betting storylines heading into Week 15.Elsewhere, the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs — two preseason Super Bowl contenders currently on the outside of the playoff picture — are in must-win mode against opponents from Los Angeles that are on the right side of the playoff cutline.And in the Pacific Northwest, the Seattle Seahawks are laying nearly two touchdowns for a third time in four weeks — this time against a playoff-contending opponent with a dire quarterback situation.With all five matchups carrying postseason implications, we’re highlighting each in our weekly batch of NFL betting trends designed to assist with […]
Real Madrid perde em casa para o City e pressão aumenta sobre o técnico Xabi Alonso
Rodrygo marcou para o Real Madrid, mas não foi o suficiente (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)O Real Madrid perdeu por 2 a 1 para o Manchester City, de virada, na tarde desta quarta-feira, no Santiago Bernabéu, em jogo válido pela sexta rodada da primeira fase da Champions League. Rodrygo abriu o placar no primeiro tempo, mas O’Reilly empatou pouco tempo depois, e Haaland, em cobrança de pênalti aos 43 minutos, garantiu a vitória do time treinado pelo espanhol Pep Guardiola. Vale lembrar que o brasileiro Rodrygo não marcava um gol desde março. Ou seja, há 34 jogos. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADEA derrota, a segunda seguida em casa (o Real Madrid perdeu para o Celta de Vigo por 2 a 0 pela LaLiga no último fim de semana), aumentou ainda mais a pressão sobre o técnico Xabi Alonso. Não somente pelo resultado, mas pelo futebol […]
Papers: Frustration with Wirtz fuelling Salah’s animosity at Liverpool
The top stories and transfer rumours from Thursday's newspapers.Premier LeagueLiverpool are not planning to give Mohamed Salah an Anfield farewell on Saturday against Brighton as they look to protect their players transfer value - The Telegraph Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Sky Sports chief correspondent Kaveh Solhekol explains how a move for Mohamed Salah to Saudi Arabia may come about, or could he even be tempted by a move to Europe or another club in the Premier League Florian Wirtz's status as the future of Liverpool has angered Mohamed Salah and is at the heart of his animosity - BILD Spreaker This content is provided by Spreaker, which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend […]
After Notre Dame’s numerous tantrums, what’s the school’s endgame? A divorce from the ACC?
The more Notre Dame squawks and threatens like a 7-year-old mad at their parents because they didn’t get a stuffed animal at the state fair, the more reasonable it is to wonder whether there’s something more going on besides frustration over a College Football Playoff snub.Long-simmering complaints on both sides of the Notre Dame-ACC relationship have started to spill into the public discourse since Sunday, when the College Football Playoff selection committee surprisingly elevated Miami over the Irish for the final at-large spot in the 12-team field.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIssues that have been brewing under the surface for a couple years — largely tied which football games the ACC owes Notre Dame in its unique scheduling arrangement and when they’re played — have erupted like a pimple under a hot compress. Combined with the Florida State/Clemson settlement earlier this year that set exit […]
Fantasy Baseball Offseason Reaction: Pete Alonso’s signing answers questions for Orioles; raises more for Mets
After he sat on the free agent market until February last offseason, Pete Alonso found his home much earlier this time around. And, for the first time in his professional career, he won't be with the Mets, as he landed with the Orioles Wednesday on a five-year deal that will make him one of the highest-paid first basemen in MLB history. And it's a move that answers some questions for the Orioles lineup in 2026 and raises plenty more for the Mets. Let's start with what this deal means for Alonso's 2026 Fantasy Baseball value before pivoting to look at the fallout for both the Orioles and Mets lineups. It's an upgrade in park, especially if you take out the years from 2022 and 2024, when the Orioles had the most punishing left field dimensions in baseball. In the four other years […]
Be the first to leave a comment