Winners of 10 one-score games this season and riding an 11-game winning streak, it’s time to acknowledge the Denver Broncos are not the luckiest team in the NFL. Holding a 12-2 record, tops in the NFL, the Broncos are the best.
And while the Broncos have one of the nastiest defenses in the NFL, one of the main reasons for Denver’s success has been the clutch performance of second-year quarterback Bo Nix. The Oregon product’s raw numbers aren’t among the best in the league, but he’s played well when it mattered the most, as he did against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. He threw for 302 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions, posting a season-high 134.7 passer rating in the 34-26 victory.
Nix’s 11 straight wins ties Lamar Jackson (2019), Peyton Manning (1999) and Dan Marino (1984) for the longest win streak by a quarterback in his second season ever. Nix also ties Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck and Dak Prescott for the second most quarterback wins his first two seasons (22).
For the year, Nix is ninth in total passing yards (3,256), tied for fifth in touchdown passes (23) and 18th (yes, 18th) in passer rating (89.7). The Broncos have done an excellent job of protecting Nix, as he’s been sacked an NFL-low 16 times this season.
However, what has been the separator for Nix has been his ability to improvise and create second-reaction plays. Nix has been on the run on 26.8% of his drop-backs this season, tops in the league, per Next Gen Stats. While on the run, Nix leads the league with 998 air yards, and his 720 passing yards are second in the NFL.
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With Nix’s ability to create chunk plays outside the framework of the offense, it adds a dangerous and different dimension to Denver’s passing game, making it hard for opposing defenses to account for pass catchers scrambling to get open down the field and stressing their plaster rules.
Nix has eight fourth-quarter comebacks in his first two seasons, including five this year. His ability to improvise and make clutch plays in the fourth quarter gives the Broncos a chance to make a deep postseason run, particularly with teams potentially forced to travel to Mile High City if Denver holds on to the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
Nix’s MVP odds improved from +10000 last week to +7500, moving him up to No. 4 on the list, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Matthew Stafford is the clear frontrunner this week at -300, while Drake Maye took a step back at +425 and Josh Allen jumped from +1500 to +550 after leading the Buffalo Bills to a comeback win over the New England Patriots.
Here’s a closer look at my top 5 from Week 15.
5. Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (Last week: Unranked)
Here are the quarterbacks Nix has beaten this season: Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Jaxson Dart, Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud, Geno Smith, Patrick Mahomes, Marcus Mariota and Josh Love.
He’ll face Trevor Lawrence, Gardner Minshew and Justin Herbert to finish out the year, with Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Drake Maye looming this postseason.
Odds to win MVP: +7500
Nick Wright on Caleb Williams, Chiefs rebuild, Bo Nix & Broncos
4. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots (Last week: No. 2)
Hey, Maye was going to have a hiccup in what has been an amazing second year of his career at some point. Unfortunately for Maye, it came in the second half of a statement game for Josh Allen and the Bills, where the North Carolina product finished with just 47 yards passing in the second half. The Patriots’ 10-game win streak was snapped as a result, dropping to 11-3 on the season.
This will serve as a wake-up call for Maye and the Patriots, who have another tough game this week on the road against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
Odds to win MVP: +425
Garrett recorded 1.5 sacks in his team’s road loss to the Chicago Bears, and with 21.5 sacks on the year, he’s one sack away from tying the NFL’s single-season record of 22.5 sacks held by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt.
However, Garrett is dealing with a hip issue, which could slow him down as the Browns host one of the hardest quarterbacks to bring down in Josh Allen and the Bills this week. Garrett has seven games with at least five pressures this season.
Odds to win MVP: +40000
2. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (Last week: No. 3)
Allen showed why it’s wise not to bet against him at the end of the year, leading Buffalo to a comeback victory after the Bills fell behind 21-0 on the road at New England. The reigning NFL MVP threw for 193 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 123.1 passer rating. He also ran for 48 rushing yards.
With the victory, Allen now has 86 regular-season wins since entering the league in 2017, tied with Tom Brady and Russell Wilson for the second-most regular-season wins by a quarterback in his first eight seasons in NFL history. Patrick Mahomes leads the league with 89.
Odds to win MVP: +550
1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (Last week: No. 1)
It’s Stafford’s award to lose at this point, as the 37-year-old quarterback had another scintillating performance in a win over his old team, the Detroit Lions. He finished 24 of 38 (63.2%) for 368 yards, with two touchdown passes to tight end Colby Parkinson, posting a 101.6 passer rating. Stafford has thrown at least two touchdown passes in eight straight games, which is tied for the longest streak in his career. He’s thrown a touchdown pass in every game this season (14).
Stafford has been particularly effective against the blitz this season. Stafford has thrown 25 touchdowns and no interceptions against the blitz this season, including 20 touchdowns across 43 passes inside the red zone, per Next Gen Stats.
Odds to win MVP: -300
Honorable mention: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Love, Jared Goff.
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.
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