Happy Holidays to everyone, except for the commissioner of my fantasy league, who knocked me out of our playoffs over the weekend. Did I mention that I hate fantasy football?
Last week, I think I said that I love fantasy football, but I’ve changed my mind after losing in the playoffs by 1.42 points. I only lost because Brandon Aubrey missed two field goals. If he makes just one of of those kicks, I win. And this is the part where I remind you that Aubrey has NEVER MISSED TWO FIELD GOALS IN ANY HOME GAME IN HIS ENTIRE CAREER, but the minute I need him to perform for my team, he falls apart. It’s fitting that a Cowboys player let me down, because now I know how their fans have felt for the past 30 years. Cowboys players and the playoffs just don’t mix. I shouldn’t have even had a Cowboys player in my starting lineup for the playoffs. I only have myself to blame.
Speaking of the Cowboys, they’re actually still alive in the playoff race, but their hopes are hanging on by a thread. If the Eagles beat the Commanders on Saturday, the Dallas will be eliminated. So will that happen? Let’s get to the Week 16 picks and find out.
All Week 16 NFL betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook
NFL Week 16 picks
L.A. Rams at Seattle (-1.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
The last time these two teams met came back in Week 11, although I’m guessing that most Seahawks fans probably don’t remember much of that game because they either repressed the memory or they were drinking every time Sam Darnold threw an interception and if you were doing that, you were definitely blacked out by halftime. For anyone who didn’t watch that Week 11 game, Darnold threw four interceptions in a 21-19 loss.
On one hand, it’s easy to talk yourself into taking the Seahawks here. In the first meeting, Darnold played his worst game of the season and Seattle still almost won, so as long as he doesn’t melt down with another four-interception performance, the Seahawks just might be able to pull off the upset.
On the other hand, there’s a 50% chance that Darnold has another four-interception game because he’s always bad against the Rams. I’m starting to feel like Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula has figured out the secret to stopping Darnold: Put a lot of pressure on him and let him beat himself.
Darnold has faced the Rams three times over the past 14 months and in those three games, he’s gone 0-3 with five interceptions (he’s also been sacked 12 times). The biggest difference between this week’s game and the three previous games is that the three losses all came in Los Angeles, but this time around, Darnold will actually get to play at home, which could give him some confidence, something he’ll desperately need in this game.
This isn’t just a big game for Darnold, it’s also a big game for a Seattle team that has struggled in big spots. The Seahawks have only faced three NFC teams who are currently above .500 this year (49ers, Buccaneers, Rams) and they’ve gone 0-3 in those games.
In Week 1, the Seahawks lost 17-13 to the 49ers, and in that game, both Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba fumbled the ball away in the fourth quarter. In Week 5, the Seahawks lost 38-35 because their defense couldn’t stop Baker Mayfield, who threw for 379 yards. In Week 11, the Seahawks lost to the Rams because Darnold threw four interceptions.
If the Seahawks are going to win, they need to play mistake free football, and you know what, I’m just not sure Darnold is going to be able to do that against this defense. I thought about taking the Seahawks here, but I just can’t pick Darnold to win a big game until I actually see him win one.
PICK: Rams 27-24 over Seahawks
Green Bay (-1.5) at Chicago
Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo — try for free)
This game is the second part of a Saturday doubleheader this week, which means that, yup, Saturday football is back! On a normal Saturday during the NFL season, I generally spend my entire day telling my 5-year-old to stop stacking Oreos on her baby brother’s head, but I guess someone else is going to have to handle that this week or I’m going to have to hide the Oreos. Also, the worst part is that she doesn’t even eat the Oreos. She just stacks them and throws them away. We’ve gone through 700 Oreos this year. I need to stop buying Oreos.
Anyway, we’ll be getting at least two Saturday games per week over the final three weeks of the regular-season and that starts now. The first game on Saturday will be Eagles at Commanders and that will be followed by this game, which will mark the second time in 13 days that these two teams have met.
This is a huge game for both teams: Not only will the winner of this game be in the driver’s seat to win the NFC North, but the winner of this game will CLINCH a playoff berth this weekend if the Lions lose to the Steelers on Sunday.
These two teams just faced each other on Dec. 7, and in that game, I picked the Packers to win by seven and they ended up winning by seven. And yes, I celebrated that pick by eating three Oreos that my five-year-old stacked on her brother’s head.
Since these two teams just played each other, I’m going to go back and look at what I wrote for the first game and see if my mind has changed about anything.
From my Week 14 Bears-Packers pick, “If the Bears are going to win, they’re going to have to be able to run the ball. In 12 games, the Bears are 6-0 this season when they rush for at least 140 yards, but 3-3 when they finish below that number. When it comes to stopping the run, the Packers have been one of the best teams in the NFL. They’ve faced two of the top four rushing offenses in the league this year and they went 3-0 in those games.”
The Bears have played exactly two games since I wrote that paragraph: They topped 140 rushing yards against the Browns and won, but they were held under 140 rushing yards against the Packers, and they lost. So they’re now 7-0 this season when they top 140 rushing yards and 3-4 when they don’t. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
The Bears have absolutely been a huge surprise, but as good as Ben Johnson has been this year, I’m still not sure Caleb Williams is a top-15 QB. The Bears quarterback has looked brilliant at times, but he seems to struggle when he’s forced to carry the offense, which is why the Bears getting their rushing attack going is so important.
The problem with picking this game is that the Packers defense isn’t the same Packers defense that faced the Bears two weeks ago and that’s mainly because MICAH FREAKING PARSONS won’t be on the field. The Packers star is out for the season, which leaves a gaping hole on Green Bay’s defense. The Parsons injury is a devastating loss for the Packers and I think it knocks them off the list of serious Super Bowl contenders. However, for this week, I think his loss might actually inspire the Packers to a win. With Parsons out, the Bears suddenly have more pressure on them to win and I think the Packers defense is going to be extra motivated after hearing all week that they can’t win games without Parsons.
PICK: Packers 23-20 over Bears
Tampa Bay (-3) at Carolina
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo — try for free)
If there’s any team that wants to cancel Christmas this year, it’s probably the Buccaneers and that’s because, at this point, I’m pretty sure they hate everything about the month of December. Actually, I think they might also hate November, too. When the month of November started, the Bucs were sitting at 6-2 and it looked like they were going to coast to the NFC South title, but then they got punched in the face by the holiday season. They’ve gone 1-5 since the start of November and they’ve done their best to give the division away to the Panthers, but Carolina has refused to take it.
No one wants to win the NFC South, except apparently the Saints, but they’ve already been eliminated, so by default, we are down to the Panthers and Buccaneers (By the way, the 4-10 Saints are 3-2 in NFC South play this year and they might finish with the best divisional record. If that happens, just give them the playoff spot.)
The biggest reason the Bucs have been struggling so much over their past seven games is because they’ve been banged up:
- Chris Godwin has missed two of seven games since Nov. 1
- Bucky Irving has missed three of seven games since Nov. 1
- Mike Evans has missed six of seven games since Nov. 1
- Cade Otton missed last week’s loss to the Falcons
Basically, “General Hospital” could probably do an entire episode on the all of the Buccaneers injuries so far this year. The only upside for Tampa Bay is that everyone seems to be getting healthy in time for this showdown with the Panthers. I picked the Buccaneers to lose to the Falcons last week and although I’d love to give myself a pat on the back, it’s a game they shouldn’t have lost. They blew a 28-14 lead in the fourth quarter because they forgot how to play defense and because Baker Mayfield threw an ugly interception.
For 3.5 quarters, the Bucs looked good and they looked like the team that we saw at the beginning of the year. Since they played on Thursday in Week 15, they’re getting 10 days of rest going into this game, and let me just say, no team in the NFL was in a bigger need of 10 days off than the Bucs.
The Buccaneers have won five in a row against the Panthers and I don’t think that streak is going to end here.
PICK: Buccaneers 30-20 over Panthers
Jacksonville at Denver (-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo — try for free)
With Christmas less than 10 days away, the Jaguars could give their fans the greatest gift of all on Sunday: A playoff berth. If the Jaguars beat the Broncos, they’ll clinch a playoff berth if they ALSO get a loss from the Colts (versus 49ers) OR Texans (versus Raiders). The Jaguars have only been to the playoffs twice over the past 17 years, so getting into the postseason would certainly be something to celebrate in Jacksonville. And as we all know, any celebration in Jacksonville will involve their mascot wearing a thong, so in a way, we all win.
Now that we’ve got that playoff clinching nugget out of the way, I’m going to go full Grinch on you Jaguars fans: Although the Jags could clinch a playoff spot this week, I don’t think it will happen.
I know we always talk about how the Dolphins always seem to struggle in cold weather, but as a general rule of thumb, I just don’t trust any Florida team being forced to play on the road in cold weather and I definitely don’t trust them on the road in the month of December. The Jags haven’t won a road game as an underdog in cold weather (under 40 degrees) since 2013.
The good news for the Jags is that they won’t have to worry about the weather this week because Mother Nature is apparently a Jaguars fan. The Sunday forecast in Denver is calling for temperatures that could hit 60 degrees.
Although they won’t have to worry about the weather, this is still a road game and the Jags are 1-9 in their past 10 December road games against non-divisional opponents.
The Broncos defense will present a stiff test for the Jags, but the Jacksonville offense is one that has arguably been tested more than any team this season. Of the four teams in the NFL that given up the fewest yards this year (Texans, Seahawks, Chargers and Browns) the Jags have played three games against that group and they’ve averaged 23.3 points per game while going 2-2. So Jacksonville will certainly have some confidence going into this game, especially with Trevor Lawerence coming off arguably the best game of his career.
If I’m worried about anything here, it’s whether the Jags defense can slow down the Broncos offense. Bo Nix has gotten hot over the past few weeks: He’s averaging 282.5 passing yards per game over the past four weeks and the Jaguars are 2-3 this season when their opponent throws for more than 280 yards.
The Broncos are a perfect 7-0 at home this year and they have a lot to play for: If they go 2-1 in their final three games, they’ll clinch the No.1 overall seed in the AFC no matter what happens in any other game. I feel like the Jags will keep this close, but the Broncos end up winning a thriller, which means no one will get to see Jaxson De Ville in a thong.
PICK: Broncos 27-24 over Jaguars
New England at Baltimore (-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Last week, I called the Broncos a house of cards and as it turns out, I was wrong, because the real house of cards might be New England. Heading into Week 16, the Patriots have had one of the best defenses in the NFL this year: They’re one of just seven teams that’s given up less than 20 points per game this season and they’ve surrendered the seventh-fewest yards per game (300.1).
Now, that is definitely impressive, except that I’m still not sure if the Patriots defense is actually good. The Patriots have 11 wins this year and one thing I noticed is that 10 of those wins have come against this group of quarterbacks: Bryce Young, Tua Tagovailoa, Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, Michael Penix, Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields, Joe Flacco, Jaxson Dart. That’s three rookie quarterbacks (Ward, Garbiel and Dart), two guys who have been benched (Rattler and Fields), three top 10 picks who haven’t quite lived up to their hype (Young, Tua and Penix), a 40-year-old (Flacco) and one guy who hasn’t really looked good since October (Mayfield). The Patriots played him in November. They are 10-0 against the group.
And then you have Josh Allen. The Patriots have gone 1-1 against Allen and the Bills and that loss came on Sunday after New England blew a 21-0 lead. Allen gave the Patriots fits in the second half and Lamar Jackson could certainly do the same thing if someone reminds him that he’s allowed to run the ball. Jackson doesn’t necessarily HAVE to run the ball for the Ravens’ offense to work, but the threat of him running the ball definitely opens things up.
I have no idea what the Ravens offense is going to look like on Sunday, because they’ve been so streaky all year, but on paper, this will be the stiffest test that New England has faced this season. The Bills are good, but they don’t have any great receiving weapons. At full strength, the Bucs offense presents a challenge, but the Patriots got to face them without Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin or Mike Evans.
If the Ravens offense has struggled at one thing this year, it’s scoring in the red zone. They’ve score a touchdown on just 44% of their trips, which ranks 31st in the NFL. The good news for the Ravens is that the Patriots are the perfect opponent to face when you’re trying to fix your red zone issues. The Patriots defense has surrendered a TD on 75% of their opponents’ red zone trips, which ranks dead last in the NFL (To put that in perspective, there are only three teams in the NFL above 70%, including New England).
The Ravens are healthy and they’re going to be desperate because a loss could crush their playoff hopes. I’ll say they keep their postseason dreams alive with a big win against New England.
PICK: Ravens 23-20 over Patriots
NFL Week 16 picks: All the rest
Eagles 24-17 over Commanders
Bills 27-17 over Browns
Cowboys 30-27 over Chargers
Chiefs 19-16 over Titans
Bengals 34-27 over Dolphins
Saints 23-16 over Jets
Vikings 24-16 over Giants
Cardinals 22-19 over Falcons
Lions 30-23 over Steelers
Texans 30-10 over Raiders
49ers 27-16 over Colts
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Falcons would upset the Buccaneers on Thursday night and guess what happened? The Falcons upset the Buccaneers on Thursday night. Look, if there’s one time when you never want to pick against the Falcons, it’s when they have absolutely nothing to play for. If the Falcons had needed this win to keep their playoff hopes alive, they would have lost by 20. But that wasn’t the case. They got eliminated from playoff contention in Week 14 and at that point, they immediately became the most dangerous team in the NFL because no one is better at winning meaningless games than Atlanta.
Also, if there’s one time you never want to bet against Kirk Cousins, it’s when he’s facing the Buccaneers. Cousins has started 21 games since signing with the Falcons in 2024 and in that span, he’s only throw for more than 350 yards twice and BOTH came against the Buccaneers on a Thursday night. Cousins would be the MVP and Atlanta would be undefeated if the Falcons’ schedule consisted only of Thursday night games against Tampa Bay.
Worst pick: The Miami Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL when it comes to playing in cold weather and even though I knew the kickoff temperature was going to be under 20 degrees for their game in Week 15, I STILL PICKED THEM TO WIN. Going into Monday’s game with the Steelers, the Dolphins had lost THIRTEEN STRAIGHT GAMES when the kickoff temperature was below 40 degrees, Tua Tagovailoa had never won a game in his NFL career when the temperature was below 40 degrees (0-5) and Mike McDaniel had a career record of 4-13 in prime time. That is a trifecta of trends that no intelligent person would ever bet again. The Dolphins gave me every reason to pick against them, BUT I STILL PICKED THEM. On top of all that, the Pittsburgh Steelers had not lost a Monday night home game SINCE 1991. Despite everything I just mentioned, I still somehow talked myself into picking a team that’s horrible in the cold to win a Monday game in the cold against a team that never loses at home on Mondays.
To add insult to injury, Kenneth Gainwell went off for 16.1 points to eliminate my stupid fantasy team from the stupid fantasy playoffs. I had a 14.68-point lead and all I needed was for the Dolphins defense not to let KENNETH GAINWELL get to 14.7 points. If Brandon Aubrey had just made one of the TWO 50-yard field goals that he missed, I would have won by 3.58 points. I hate fantasy football.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, I’ve got that very important information right here. Here’s a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picking games this year
Team I’m 13-1 picking this year (Straight up): Raiders
Teams I’m 12-2 picking this year (Straight up): Seahawks, Titans
Longest winning streak: Raiders (13 straight games picked correctly)
Teams I’m the worst at picking: Chiefs (5-9), Panthers (6-8)
Longest losing streak: Bengals, Ravens (Three straight games picked incorrectly)
Picks Record
Straight up in Week 15: 9-7
SU overall: 141-82-1
Against the spread in Week 15: 5-11
ATS overall: 108-115-1
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably busy scheduling a press conference where he’ll likely announce his retirement from fantasy football.
This news was originally published on this post .
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