The 12-team College Football Playoff begins this week on Friday, with Alabama traveling to Oklahoma as a small favorite. Saturday will see Texas A&M host Miami (FL) as a 3.5-point favorite and Group of Five teams James Madison and Tulane try to pull off massive upsets against Oregon and Ole Miss, respectively.
Despite losing 13-10 to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game, Ohio State is still the +225 favorite to win the CFP at sportsbooks, followed by Indiana (+275) and Georgia (+500). All three teams have a first-round bye in the CFP, along with Texas Tech (+900).
Advertisement
Our college football handicapping trio of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng, Matt Russell provide a best bet on all four CFP games below.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Friday, Dec. 19
Russell: The College Football Playoff opener pits two teams who didn’t get here by making it look pretty. In fact, if teams were put in because of style points, neither Alabama nor Oklahoma would’ve made it, given the difficulty both had in scoring during the season’s final month.
The Crimson Tide did squeak in, thanks to a four-game stretch in the middle of the season where they went to Georgia and won, and beat other ranked teams: Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee.
Advertisement
Oklahoma’s here because it won in Tuscaloosa.
The Sooners beat the Crimson Tide 23-21, but mustered only 212 total yards, winning thanks to a pick 6 and a Bama fumble that created a short field for Oklahoma’s offense.
Speaking of short fields, we might still be waiting on someone to score in the SEC championship, were it not for four of those. While much has been made about Georgia making Alabama look bad in their rematch, the Bulldogs’ four touchdowns came on drives of 21, 57, 40, and 12 yards. Having 130 yards of offense doesn’t usually translate into 28 points, but Georgia blocked a punt, had an interception, a long punt return, and a stop on fourth down when times were desperate for the Tide.
The bad news for Alabama? For the season, Oklahoma’s defense was even more dominant than Georgia’s.
Advertisement
The bad news for Oklahoma? Alabama’s defense matched Georgia this season in defensive Success Rate and Line Yards.
The Sooners have survived by the big play on offense, but those are few and far between against the Tide’s defense. While the turnovers allowed the first meeting to creep over 40 points, Oklahoma’s games against better defenses (Michigan, Auburn, Texas, South Carolina, Missouri and LSU) have exclusively stayed under the total.
Meanwhile, Alabama had just 14 points in 57 minutes at South Carolina, and while they stormed back to win with two touchdowns in the final two minutes, getting to 20 points has been a struggle for an offense that, like Oklahoma, can’t generate much of anything on the ground to sustain long drives.
Advertisement
Rather than pick a side in a game that’s a true toss-up, unfortunately, the better bet is that the College Football Playoff gets kicked off with a defensive struggle, where we hope possessions end in a punt.
Bet: Under 40.5 total points (-110)
Saturday, Dec. 20
Feng: Notre Dame fans will be watching in droves to see which one of these two teams that beat them this season will advance in the CFP.
Texas A&M had an undefeated season until a home loss to Texas in the regular season finale. That surprising loss kept the Aggies out of the SEC championship game.
Advertisement
Texas A&M is solid on both sides of the ball, ranking eighth on offense and fifth on defense in my adjusted success rate. If there is any weakness, the Aggies do allow explosive run plays on defense (69th in my adjusted yards per carry metric). This might have been a disaster against Notre Dame and Jeremiah Love, but they get Miami instead.
Miami stumbled in the middle of the season with ACC losses to Louisville and SMU. However, the losses came by a total of nine points, and then the Hurricanes dominated in their last four games.
Just like Texas A&M, Miami excels on both sides of the football, ranking seventh on offense and 10th on defense in my adjusted success rate. RB Mark Fletcher missed a few games this season before returning for the last two games but with limited carries. Fletcher is an excellent back who might be able to generate explosive plays against the Aggies.
All of my metrics rate these two teams about the same. A market that favors Texas A&M by the home field parameter I use is fair. However, my model predicts 55.7 points, and the only potential significant injury is Miami CB Keionte Scott.
Advertisement
Bet: Over 51.5
Craig: Ole Miss entered the postseason expecting stability, only to watch head coach Lane Kiffin exit before the finish line. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding now takes over the headset, bringing real credibility but a real challenge. We’ve already seen two midseason DC promotions this year — Auburn with D.J. Durkin and Colorado State with Tyson Summers — and both units slipped. Golding’s situation is more controlled, but it still forces him to split focus during the most scheme-heavy stretch of the year.
Offensively, the Rebels lose one of the best play-callers in the sport, but they kept enough staff and skill talent to stay explosive. And if there’s ever a moment to make a statement, this is it. Don’t be surprised if Golding pushes the throttle — a big postseason performance would send a loud message that Ole Miss isn’t dependent on Kiffin to compete at the highest level.
Advertisement
Bet: Tulane-Ole Miss over 56.5 (-110)
Feng: It’s a shame that the committee sent James Madison to Oregon.
Head coach Bob Chesney took over from Curt Cignetti and has compiled a 21-5 record in two seasons at JMU. This team has an elite defense that ranks 10th in my yards-per-play numbers even after adjustments for their Sun Belt conference schedule. Freshman Sahir West has starred with seven sacks this season.
The James Madison offense has been explosive in the run game, as it ranks eighth in my adjusted yards per carry. RB Wayne Knight has rushed for 6.7 yards per carry, and QB Alonza Barnett III also contributes to the ground game.
Advertisement
[Yahoo Sports TV is here! Watch live shows and highlights 24/7]
However, Oregon is an elite team with a real chance to win the national championship (13.1% by my numbers). They were so loaded at running back that high-profile transfer Makhi Hughes decided to redshirt after four games because he was behind holdover Noah Whittingham and also two freshmen.
In addition, Oregon has an excellent defense, which ranks third in my adjusted yards per play. Coach Dan Lanning comes from a defensive background, and he will have a plan and the talent to eliminate the Dukes’ explosive runs.
The CFP would hit the next level with an upset from an 11 or 12 seed. James Madison at Ole Miss would have been an excellent matchup for the underdog, as my numbers would have made Ole Miss about a six-point favorite. It is doubly frustrating because all of my metrics have 12-seed James Madison way ahead of No. 11 Tulane, the team that actually plays at Ole Miss.
Advertisement
Instead, James Madison faces one of the favorites, and my numbers have Oregon by 16.3 points. Oregon might struggle a little bit without star freshman WR Dakorien Moore, and the Dukes’ defense should keep them in the game. However, Oregon should cruise comfortably to meet Texas Tech.
Bet: Lean James Madison +21.5
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
Patrick Mahomes begins rehab from torn ACL, with Chiefs hoping he’ll be ready for next season
Patrick Mahomes is done for the season and so are the Kansas City Chiefs. Now the question is how much the quarterback's torn ACL will affect the 2026 season.Rick Burkholder, the Chiefs' vice president of sports medicine and performance, addressed that question with reporters on Wednesday, two days after Mahomes went under the knife for both a torn ACL and LCL. He projected optimism that Mahomes would enjoy a successful rehab, with a very loose recovery timeline of nine months:"Every player is different. Every sport's different. Every position is different. With him, traditionally, he's going after it so hard and he's so in tune with what he does, he does it a little quicker. Ballpark on this is nine months. Could be a month or two less, a month or two more. You never know what goes on and everyone's […]
Dolphins bench Tua Tagovailoa + Puka Nacua calls refs “the worst” (ft. Amon-Ra St. Brown)
Subscribe to Inside CoverageWill Tua Tagovailoa ever start again for the Miami Dolphins? Yahoo Sports' Andrew Siciliano, Jori Epstein and Ben Fawkes discuss the benching of the QB, with rookie Quinn Ewers set to take over for the rest of the season. They move on to debate whether the Atlanta Falcons will start the 2026 season with Kirk Cousins as signal caller, before discussing the latest cryptic comments from Joe Burrow and Zac Taylor. Andrew also sits down with Amon-Ra St. Brown to discuss the 2025 NFL season, as well as his Christmas priorities ahead of the holiday. Closing things out, the crew breaks down the enormous matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks before discussing their "One More Thing".AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement(4:48) - Dolphins bench Tua Tagovailoa(16:14) - Could Kirk Cousins start next season for the Falcons?(23:58) - Amon-Ra St. […]
Trae Young questionable, eyeing return Thursday vs. Hornets after missing 22 games with MCL sprain
Trae Young is just about ready to make his return. Young was upgraded to questionable for the Atlanta Hawks’ game with the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday night. If Young is able to go in that contest, it’ll mark his first game since he went down with a right MCL sprain on Oct. 29.Young was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, his second practice back with the Hawks after scrimmaging with their G League affiliate earlier this week.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement"It's my knee, something that had to take a little more time than some other injuries ... I feel good,” Young said Tuesday, via ESPN. “[My conditioning is] going to get better as you play. They wouldn't even allow me to come back or even be close to coming back if my conditioning wasn't right or close to it."Young suffered an MCL sprain […]
Nationals reportedly hiring Ani Kilambi, 31-year-old Phillies assistant GM, as new general manager
The Washington Nationals' youth movement is rolling full steam ahead. They're hiring 31-year-old Philadelphia Phillies assistant general manager Ani Kilambi as the team's new general manager, as reported Wednesday by ESPN's Jeff Passan.The Phillies hired Kilambi from the Tampa Bay Rays' highly-respected front office when he was just 27 years old. Kilambi went on to oversee the Phillies' research and development department.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNow he'll team up with 35-year-old Nationals president of baseball operations Paul Toboni to help 33-year-old manager Blake Butera turn around an organization that won a World Series in 2019 but hasn't made the playoffs, or even won more than 71 games, in a season since.Washington finished last in the NL East this past season with a lowly record of 66-96. In July, the Nationals moved on from general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez.One silver lining this […]
The Big Picture: Rams Ready for Seahawks, the Team Jared Verse ‘Dislikes the Most’
The rematch the Seattle Seahawks have been waiting for has arrived, but the Los Angeles Rams are just as ready as they are for Thursday's heavyweight NFC West tilt. Five weeks ago, the Rams edged out the Seahawks in a nail-biter at SoFi Stadium as Seattle kicker Jason Myers missed a 61-yard field goal at the buzzer. Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold had his worst performance since joining Seattle in that game, throwing four interceptions. But with the Seahawks still having an opportunity at the end, defensive players like Leonard Williams and Uchenna Nwosu said afterward they couldn’t wait to face the Rams at their place for the rematch.Well, the Rams can't wait, either. While the Rams-San Francisco 49ers rivalry might be the most competitive in the NFC West considering their recent success, second-year edge rusher Jared Verse pointed at the Seahawks […]
NFL Week 16 picks: Expert looks at teams coming off shutout losses under proven betting system
SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman's system paid off in Week 14, with the New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders covering the spread, and he hit one of two in Week 15. The Houston Texans blew out the Arizona Cardinals, who were giving 9.5 points, but the Washington Commanders beat the New York Giants as 2.5-point underdogs. Hochman has lined up another system for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season and identified two spots bettors can target.NFL teams bouncing back after shutout lossesWin Rate: 31-12-4 ATS (72.1%)Sample Size: Since 2011Criteria: Teams scoring zero points in the prior weekEdge: Non-Division games; Week 11 or laterWhy does this work?This system looks at teams that didn't score the previous week and were playing a non-divisional team in Week 11 or later. In this spot, teams have covered the spread 31 times in […]
Related
Patrick Mahomes begins rehab from torn ACL, with Chiefs hoping he’ll be ready for next season
Patrick Mahomes is done for the season and so are the Kansas City Chiefs. Now the question is how much the quarterback's torn ACL will affect the 2026 season.Rick Burkholder, the Chiefs' vice president of sports medicine and performance, addressed that question with reporters on Wednesday, two days after Mahomes went under the knife for both a torn ACL and LCL. He projected optimism that Mahomes would enjoy a successful rehab, with a very loose recovery timeline of nine months:"Every player is different. Every sport's different. Every position is different. With him, traditionally, he's going after it so hard and he's so in tune with what he does, he does it a little quicker. Ballpark on this is nine months. Could be a month or two less, a month or two more. You never know what goes on and everyone's […]
Dolphins bench Tua Tagovailoa + Puka Nacua calls refs “the worst” (ft. Amon-Ra St. Brown)
Subscribe to Inside CoverageWill Tua Tagovailoa ever start again for the Miami Dolphins? Yahoo Sports' Andrew Siciliano, Jori Epstein and Ben Fawkes discuss the benching of the QB, with rookie Quinn Ewers set to take over for the rest of the season. They move on to debate whether the Atlanta Falcons will start the 2026 season with Kirk Cousins as signal caller, before discussing the latest cryptic comments from Joe Burrow and Zac Taylor. Andrew also sits down with Amon-Ra St. Brown to discuss the 2025 NFL season, as well as his Christmas priorities ahead of the holiday. Closing things out, the crew breaks down the enormous matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks before discussing their "One More Thing".AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement(4:48) - Dolphins bench Tua Tagovailoa(16:14) - Could Kirk Cousins start next season for the Falcons?(23:58) - Amon-Ra St. […]
Trae Young questionable, eyeing return Thursday vs. Hornets after missing 22 games with MCL sprain
Trae Young is just about ready to make his return. Young was upgraded to questionable for the Atlanta Hawks’ game with the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday night. If Young is able to go in that contest, it’ll mark his first game since he went down with a right MCL sprain on Oct. 29.Young was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, his second practice back with the Hawks after scrimmaging with their G League affiliate earlier this week.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement"It's my knee, something that had to take a little more time than some other injuries ... I feel good,” Young said Tuesday, via ESPN. “[My conditioning is] going to get better as you play. They wouldn't even allow me to come back or even be close to coming back if my conditioning wasn't right or close to it."Young suffered an MCL sprain […]
Nationals reportedly hiring Ani Kilambi, 31-year-old Phillies assistant GM, as new general manager
The Washington Nationals' youth movement is rolling full steam ahead. They're hiring 31-year-old Philadelphia Phillies assistant general manager Ani Kilambi as the team's new general manager, as reported Wednesday by ESPN's Jeff Passan.The Phillies hired Kilambi from the Tampa Bay Rays' highly-respected front office when he was just 27 years old. Kilambi went on to oversee the Phillies' research and development department.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNow he'll team up with 35-year-old Nationals president of baseball operations Paul Toboni to help 33-year-old manager Blake Butera turn around an organization that won a World Series in 2019 but hasn't made the playoffs, or even won more than 71 games, in a season since.Washington finished last in the NL East this past season with a lowly record of 66-96. In July, the Nationals moved on from general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez.One silver lining this […]
The Big Picture: Rams Ready for Seahawks, the Team Jared Verse ‘Dislikes the Most’
The rematch the Seattle Seahawks have been waiting for has arrived, but the Los Angeles Rams are just as ready as they are for Thursday's heavyweight NFC West tilt. Five weeks ago, the Rams edged out the Seahawks in a nail-biter at SoFi Stadium as Seattle kicker Jason Myers missed a 61-yard field goal at the buzzer. Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold had his worst performance since joining Seattle in that game, throwing four interceptions. But with the Seahawks still having an opportunity at the end, defensive players like Leonard Williams and Uchenna Nwosu said afterward they couldn’t wait to face the Rams at their place for the rematch.Well, the Rams can't wait, either. While the Rams-San Francisco 49ers rivalry might be the most competitive in the NFC West considering their recent success, second-year edge rusher Jared Verse pointed at the Seahawks […]
NFL Week 16 picks: Expert looks at teams coming off shutout losses under proven betting system
SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman's system paid off in Week 14, with the New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders covering the spread, and he hit one of two in Week 15. The Houston Texans blew out the Arizona Cardinals, who were giving 9.5 points, but the Washington Commanders beat the New York Giants as 2.5-point underdogs. Hochman has lined up another system for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season and identified two spots bettors can target.NFL teams bouncing back after shutout lossesWin Rate: 31-12-4 ATS (72.1%)Sample Size: Since 2011Criteria: Teams scoring zero points in the prior weekEdge: Non-Division games; Week 11 or laterWhy does this work?This system looks at teams that didn't score the previous week and were playing a non-divisional team in Week 11 or later. In this spot, teams have covered the spread 31 times in […]
Be the first to leave a comment