Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit: Adonai Mitchell, Audric Estimé among players in great spots for Week 16

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Using matchup data, I’ve got 13 sleepers that could help propel your fantasy football teams into the fantasy finals. Good luck and let’s go….

Quarterbacks

J.J. McCarthy vs. NYG

• The Giants have given up the second-most fantasy points to the quarterback position, with eight of the last nine tossing at least two touchdowns.

• McCarthy, after looking like a worse version of Zach Wilson, has since stabilized over his last two games, accounting for three touchdowns in back-to-back games.

Aaron Rodgers vs. DET

• Safety Kerby Joseph has been out for Detroit since Week 7 and CB Terrion Arnold, who struggled through injuries since Week 6, played Week 9 before leaving mid-game Week 10. He came back briefly in Week 13 but was recently placed on IR with a shoulder injury.

• As a result, the Lions’ pass defense has gotten progressively worse. Since that Arnold injury in Week 10, the Lions have allowed the most pass yards, are tied for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed and overall have allowed the second-highest EPA per dropback, per Next Gen Stats.

• Considering the Steelers’ pass defense is also one of the 10 worst in the NFL, it should come as no surprise this game has the highest projected point total of the entire week at 52.

• Rodgers himself is coming off back-to-back two-touchdown games and is playing well.

Tyler Shough vs. NYJ

• The Jets have the third-fewest sacks and, incredibly, have ZERO interceptions through 15 games. This bodes well for the rookie QB, who has been playing well.

• Over his last five games, while throwing to Chris Olave and a bunch of rand-o’s, Shough has completed an impressive 70% of his passes, averaging 236 yards per game with a 93.7 rating.

• Shough has scored at least two touchdowns in two of his last three games and what’s really intriguing is that he’s been running the rock A LOT, averaging seven rush attempts per game in this three-game stretch.

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Bryce Young vs. TB

• A “break in case of emergency” play, Young has about as wide a range of outcomes as it comes. That being said, the ceiling is pretty good against a Bucs defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs.

• Six consecutive quarterbacks have scored 2+ touchdowns against Tampa Bay.

Running Backs

Audric Estimé vs. NYJ

• With Devin Neal placed on IR and Alvin Kamara with DNP’s Wednesday/Thursday, expect a 50-50 backfield split between Estimé and Evan Hull.

• This is what I wrote about this backfield in my most recent snap share report: “Once Devin Neal went down with a hamstring injury, Estimé and Evan Hull split the backfield carries but notably, Estimé ran more routes (14 to 8) and had a solid receiving line (3/3/39). Hull didn’t record a target. Hull is the more interesting athlete with 4.47 speed as opposed to Estimé’s 4.58 pro day time (he ran a horrific 4.71 at the combine).”

Kimani Vidal vs. DAL

• If you just saw the box score, you would’ve thought Omarion Hampton played the majority of the snaps but in reality, Vidal took home nearly 65% of them. I expect Hampton to see another slight uptick in playtime this week but even in a 50-50 split, Vidal can be productive against Dallas.

• The Cowboys allow the seventh-most fantasy points, the third-highest explosive run rate and are eighth-worst in yards per carry allowed to opposing backs (4.56).

Jawhar Jordan vs. LV

• Woody Marks (ankle) was a DNP on both Wednesday and Thursday. While Nick Chubb (ribs) returned to practice, he hasn’t necessarily inspired much confidence when he’s been out there this season. Meanwhile, Jordan is coming off a terrific game, rushing for 101 yards — the Texans’ first 100-yard rusher OF THE SEASON.

• The Raiders have given up at least 16.5 PPR points to running backs in five of the last six games they’ve played.

Emanuel Wilson vs. CHI

• Watch the practice reports but Josh Jacobs missed practice all week; his availability is looking very shaky for the Saturday tilt against the Bears.

• If Jacobs is out, Wilson is in a good spot against a Chicago defense that allows 4.79 YPC to opposing backs, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. They’re also bottom-10 in both explosive run rate and run stuff rate.

Wide Receivers

Jayden Reed vs. CHI

• Christian Watson sounds like he’ll be playing, as does Dontayvion Wicks, which dampens Reed’s ceiling, but no question both Watson and Wicks are toughing it out through their respective injuries. Watson, remember, had to get checked out at a local hospital last week after suffering a chest injury and it’s a semi-short week as the game’s being played Saturday.

• The matchup is solid as the Bears allow the third-most fantasy points to receivers who line up inside. Last week, this defense gave up a big play to Browns slot WR Isaiah Bond, who finished with 10.9 PPR points. Reed just a couple weeks ago put up a decent 9.3 PPR points with a 4/4/31 line, adding in 22 rushing yards.

Quentin Johnston vs. DAL

• QJ missed last week with a groin injury but it sounds like he’s close to returning. He put in two limited practices to start the week.

• If he’s a go, he’s in a pristine spot against a Cowboys defense that simply cannot stop outside receivers, ranking dead last in fantasy points allowed to the outside.

• And adding on to the misery, top corner DaRon Bland is likely going to need a second foot surgery.

• They’ve allowed the second-most yards to the outside, while the 16 touchdowns allowed to outside receivers ranks dead last.

• Primary outside receivers have scored double-digit PPR points against this unit in six of their last seven matchups with only the J.J. McCarthy-led Vikings failing to do so last week.

Adonai Mitchell vs. NO

• This seems like a weekly occurrence, putting AD on this list, but he again has an enticing matchup against the Saints, who have allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to the outside. The 63% completion rate allowed to the outside is a bottom-eight figure.

• Mitchell is coming off a strong game, posting a 9/6/58/TD slash line. It was his second time in three games where he’s scored at least 17 PPR points.

• The volume cannot be ignored as he’s averaging 8.0 targets per game over his last five contests.

Jauan Jennings vs. IND

• Both 49ers WR Ricky Pearsall and Colts CB Sauce Gardner missed practice Thursday to open up the week. We obviously still have a ways to go, as this is a Monday night matchup, but if Pearsall misses, and it sounds really iffy for him, this opens up a huge target share for Jennings. We’ll see on Sauce but he hasn’t played since playing two snaps in Week 13.

• With Gardner missing, the Colts have allowed FIVE different outside receivers to record double-digit PPR points in just three games.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller vs. CIN

• Waller is coming off a two-touchdown performance and you already know the story with Cincy; it’s by far the worst defense against tight ends this year.

• The Bengals are dead last in yards, receptions and touchdowns allowed to this position group.

• The only reason Waller isn’t an absolute smash start is that the Dolphins are rolling out rookie signal-caller Quinn Ewers, whose arm strength might be worse than Tua Tagovailoa’s. Buckle up.

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