The Buffalo Bills still have a lot to play for, but the Cleveland Browns can only play spoiler on Sunday when the teams meet in NFL Week 16. The Bills (10-4) still have hopes of retaining the AFC East title and an outside shot at the AFC’s top seed, but they sit a game behind the Patriots in the division with three games left. The Browns (3-11) are looking at another high draft pick, but quarterback Shedeur Sanders is sure to put up a fight to prove he has a future in Cleveland.
Kickoff from Huntington Bank Field is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. The Bills are 10.5-point favorites in the latest Bills vs. Browns odds at DraftKings, and the over/under for total points scored is 40.5. The Bills are -629 money line favorites (risk $629 to win $100), while the Browns are +463 underdogs. Before you make any Browns vs. Bills picks of your own, make sure to look at the top NFL picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times.
Where to watch Bills vs. Browns on Sunday
When: Sunday, Dec. 21
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Stream: Paramount+
Follow along: CBS Sports App
Bills vs. Browns betting preview
Odds: Bills -10.5, Over/Under 40.5
Cleveland is 5-9 against the spread after failing to cover in 11 straight to end last season. The Bills are 7-7 ATS but have beaten the Browns in five of the past seven meetings (5-1-1 ATS). Both teams are 7-7 on the over/under, but Cleveland is 5-3 to the Over in its past eight. Only one of those totals was over 38 points, when their 32-13 loss to the Patriots went Over the 40.5 total. No Bills total has been set below 44, and they went Over 49.5 and 55 the past two weeks. Both teams allow more than 23 points per game, but Cleveland scores 16 points (fourth-fewest in NFL) and Buffalo averages 29.4 (third-most).
Bills vs. Browns SGP
- Browns -10.5
- Shedeur Sanders Over 174.5 passing yards
- James Cook Over 87.5 rushing yards
Bet it at DraftKings:
Model’s Bills vs. Browns score prediction, picks
The model sees some value in backing the Bills on the money line, giving it a ‘B’ grade, as they are winning outright in 25% of simulations as +461 underdogs. The Bills are covering 51% of the time, and there is a slight lean to the Over, which is hitting in half the simulations. The SportsLine props projections peg Sanders for 221.8 yards, well over his total at DraftKings. The rookie is averaging 225 passing yards in his four starts. Cook has topped 100 rushing yards in three of his past four games, and the model projects him for 105 yards.
Bills vs. Browns score prediction: Bills 27, Browns 16
Want more Week 16 NFL picks?
You’ve seen the model’s best bets for Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Week 16 NFL game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
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