Colts vs. 49ers Monday Night Football betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props

Sports

add

Say what you will about Philip Rivers and his return to the NFL after five years, but when it comes to Monday night’s game between the 49ers and Colts, we should thank our lucky stars that he’s involved. Otherwise, after the season-ending injury to Daniel Jones essentially ended the Colts’ previously-dream-like season, there’d be considerably less to talk about for the penultimate Monday night matchup of the regular season.

It doesn’t always work out that the hot topic on the pregame show is also the fulcrum for the game handicap, but here we are, as the favored 49ers visit the Colts — a team whose rating in the market is in flux with continued uncertainty about what they might get from Rivers, the most veteran of quarterbacks.

Advertisement

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 46) at Indianapolis Colts

With the Seahawks’ dramatic win over the Rams on Thursday, and now with a prime-time game of their own, San Francisco is no longer under the radar, with a clear path to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

The 49ers aren’t rated like their counterparts in the NFC West, though, despite a four-game winning streak since the return of Brock Purdy, one that’s seen the Niners cover as a favorite in each game.

That’s in keeping with a preseason handicap of San Francisco, where we could see how easy the schedule would be, suggesting the 49ers might finish the season with a great record without truly knowing how good they are. That said, there’s room for upward movement on their market power rating, as their average level of play might be better than they’re getting credit for.

Advertisement

San Francisco has a top-five offensive EPA/play on drop-backs for the season, and while that’s actually dropped a bit in their last four games, the run game’s gotten more effective, going from league average efficiency to seventh-best since Week 11. That’s likely a result of Purdy’s presence forcing opponents to play further off the line of scrimmage, and more room for Christian McCaffrey and Brian Robinson.

While San Francisco can control its own destiny, and the level to which they play on Monday, whether they cover or not might have more to do with what the Colts get from Rivers.

Indianapolis almost won last week, but Rivers’ arm strength was there only in spurts (short, line-drive throws). The Colts were unable to push the ball down the field, and their 16 points on 120 passing yards from Rivers was the result. It didn’t take long for Seattle to note that the Indy offense was running checkdowns (eight) to running backs, and after an early 11-yard run from Jonathan Taylor, he was held in check as well.

Advertisement

You can make the case the Seahawks didn’t know what to get from the sudden return of a future Hall-of-Famer, but after halftime adjustments, they allowed only 67 total yards the rest of the way. Now Robert Saleh and the Niners’ defense has gotten a heads up on what to expect, and over a week to prepare.

[Yahoo Sports TV is here! Watch live shows and highlights 24/7]

The Colts’ defense put up an inspired effort last week, and though they’re still without Sauce Gardner, the expectation is that DeForest Buckner is coming off IR. That will shore up the run defense, but there’s still so little room for error against the always tough-to-track 49ers offense, happy to just throw the ball to their star tailback.

The Colts’ market rating, which had them comparable to the worst teams in the NFL last week, has been boosted to the level of the Giants, Commanders and Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs. That might still be too low, given what we saw from those teams this past weekend, but against a low-key title contender, there’s too much being asked of a team limited on both sides of the ball.

Advertisement

Pick: 49ers -5.5

Player props

Buckner’s return and Ricky Pearsall’s absence cloud the prop calculus for when the 49ers have the ball, but we can still play a trio of props from the Colts’ offense that have some correlation, while also potentially mutually exclusive, as they tell a story of what should happen now that the Niners defense knows what Rivers can do.

Jonathan Taylor under 98.5 rushing yards (-115)

The first thing that should happen is that San Francisco should bring everyone a step closer to the line of scrimmage, and key on the one element of the Colts’ offense that can beat them — Jonathan Taylor. The betting market knows this, but it’s also fully aware that Taylor is going to get handed the ball constantly early on. However, if the 49ers can build a lead in a way Seattle couldn’t last week, Rivers might not be able to blindly give it to Taylor 25-plus times.

Advertisement

San Francisco’s run defense has been just OK by advanced metrics (12th in EPA/play on opponent run plays), but against run-first teams like Carolina, Cleveland and Atlanta, they’ve been up to the task, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry to Rico Dowdle, Quinshon Judkins and the combination of Bijan Robinson/Tyler Allgeier.

Alec Pierce longest reception over 13.5 yards (-115)

So the Niners bring their guys up close to the line of scrimmage and dare Rivers to throw it over them. If you know anything about Rivers, he’ll try it. The Colts’ best man-to-man, jump-ball target is Pierce, who averages 20.1 yards per reception, and has a long reception of at least 16 yards in every game he’s played this season. That low long-catch was last week, when Rivers gave him a shot to come down with one, and Pierce did.

Philip Rivers over 0.5 interceptions (-120)

Rivers takes a few shots because of how Saleh operates his defense, and some are successful. But also, some are not, particularly late in a game the Colts trail. Indianapolis trailed for all of seven plays last week, on the seventh play, Rivers threw an interception.

Advertisement

Anytime touchdown

Jauan Jennings (+130)

To borrow a phrase from Chris “Boomer” Berman, all Jauan Jennings does is catch touchdowns. He’s got seven scores on just 44 receptions this season. Of all the players with seven touchdowns, only Quentin Johnston has a higher percentage of catches resulting in a touchdown. But wait, there’s more. Since Purdy’s return to health in the starting role, Jennings has scored in three straight games, and has four touchdowns on 16 catches from Purdy.

Tyler Warren (+280)

Without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, the 49ers’ defense isn’t dominant enough to completely shut down the Colts, but Shane Steichen may need to get creative near the goal line, since he no longer has Jones as a nominal threat to carry it in, and Rivers never deployed the QB sneak even in his prime.

Advertisement

Not only is Rivers one half of one of the great QB-TE duo in NFL history — so he knows where to look for the Colts’ rookie tight end — but Warren’s also been used in direct-snap plays in short-yardage scenarios.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

This news was originally published on this post .

Share on

email

Previous

trending_flat

Sherrone Moore reportedly engaged in uncomfortable online interactions with women for years prior to Michigan firing

Sports

Next

trending_flat

NFL Week 16 Statistical Review: Lions fall short against Steelers, Patriots get back on track against Ravens

nfl