Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert framed it best Sunday evening while quoting coach Jim Harbaugh.
“We’re in position to be in a position,” Herbert said after the Chargers’ 34-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys.
Simple. Succinct. And very true.
With seven wins in their past eight games, including the last four in a row, the Chargers are now in the thick of the race to the top of the AFC. They officially clinched their playoff spot Monday when the Indianapolis Colts lost to the San Francisco 49ers. Seeding will be decided in the final two weeks of the season. The Chargers host the Houston Texans on Saturday. Then they close their schedule out in Week 18 at the Denver Broncos, a game that could have monumental ramifications.
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Some of the seeding scenarios are convoluted. Some are not.
The Chargers will win their first AFC West title since 2009 if they win out. No qualifiers necessary. In this case, the Chargers would finish 13-4. The Broncos would finish 13-4. The Chargers would win the divisional tiebreaker on head-to-head. They beat the Broncos in Week 3. And, in this scenario, they would beat the Broncos a second time in Week 18 to finish 2-0 against Denver and 6-0 in the division.
As Harbaugh told reporters Monday in Los Angeles, “Pretty simple to look at and not hard math to figure.”
Just for perspective, LaDainian Tomlinson was the Chargers’ leading rusher in 2009, the last time they won the AFC West.
The Chargers last went undefeated in the division in 1961.
Entering this season, the Kansas City Chiefs had won nine straight AFC West titles. The Chargers knocked the Chiefs out of playoff contention in Week 15. Winning the division three weeks later would cement a Harbaugh-led division takeover, and it would further validate the hiring of Harbaugh ahead of the 2024 season.
Winning out does not guarantee the Chargers’ the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That top position, of course, comes with a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
The Patriots have the easiest remaining schedule among the AFC contenders, with games against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, two teams already out of playoff contention. The Patriots improved to 12-3 with a win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. They would finish 14-3 with two wins to close the season. The Chargers cannot get to 14 wins.
If the Patriots split their final two games, and the Chargers win out, the Chargers would have the upper hand in a tiebreak scenario because of conference record, the second tiebreaker after head-to-head. The Chargers and Patriots did not play this year. If the Patriots split their final two games, they would finish 8-4 in conference. The Chargers would finish 10-2 in conference if they win their final two games.
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The Jacksonville Jaguars finish their season at the Colts in Week 17 and at home against the Tennessee Titans in Week 18, two very winnable games. The Jaguars won at the Broncos on Sunday to extend their winning streak to six games. The Jaguars, with two wins, would finish the season at 13-4. If the Chargers and Jaguars are tied atop the AFC to close the season, the Jaguars would earn the top seed because of their Week 11 win over the Chargers in Jacksonville.
The Chargers have won four straight games since a humbling Week 13 loss to the Jaguars. (Rich Storry / Getty Images)
That game was a turning point for the Chargers. In some ways, it was a necessary wake-up call for the team on both sides of the ball. But it could come back to bite the Chargers in the tiebreaking process.
According to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, the Broncos currently have the best odds to earn the top seed at around 48 percent. That is because they hold a key tiebreaker over the Patriots. The Broncos face the banged-up Chiefs on Christmas.
If the Broncos and Patriots both win out, they will each finish at 14-3. The Broncos and Patriots would be tied in conference record at 9-3. The Broncos would win the tiebreaker on record in common games. This would come down to the Patriots’ Week 1 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, which remains a shocking result.
The Patriots have the next-best odds of earning the top seed at around 38 percent.
The Chargers have about a 3 percent chance at the top seed. But there is a path.
If the Chargers win out, they take the division. They would then need at least one loss from the Patriots, who would finish 13-4. The Chargers would own that tiebreaker based on conference record. And they would need at least one loss from the Jaguars.
If the Chargers win out, they would own a tiebreaker over the Buffalo Bills, who already have three conference losses this season. The Bills cannot get to 10 conference wins. The Bills can still win the AFC East if they win out against the Philadelphia Eagles and Jets and the Patriots drop one game to either the Jets or Dolphins.
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Despite all the injuries the Chargers have dealt with this season, they still have a chance to finish atop the conference. It has been a miraculous coaching job from Harbaugh.
“You can say it’s a good position to be in, but ultimately, we’re only focused on the group of guys we got in the locker room,” Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack said Sunday. “We’re not worried about the outside noise. Not getting to high, not getting to low, staying even-keeled and trying to stack wins.”
The Chargers have two huge tests remaining. The passing offense found life against a struggling Cowboys defense Sunday. The Texans and Broncos, meanwhile, are two of the best defenses in the league.
The Chargers will not be overlooking the next game, at home against the Texans.
The Texans embarrassed the Chargers in the playoffs last year. The Chargers have everything to play for — the division, the No. 1 seed and, yes, revenge.
“This game Saturday against the Texans is the most important game of the year,” Harbaugh said.
This news was originally published on this post .
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