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Week 17 is here, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.
The tool delivers real-time projections, matchup data, hit rates and the best available odds all in one place. It’s the same level of insight trusted by all 32 NFL teams, now at your fingertips.
Here are our analysts’ favorite bets for the Week 17 Sunday slate. Their picks have gone 46-46-4 through 16 weeks.
Trevor Sikkema (9-7)
QB Quinn Ewers, Miami Dolphins: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-220 Bet MGM)
The Buccaneers’ defense has struggled down the stretch, earning a 38.0 PFF coverage grade since Week 12, but Todd Bowles’ defenses can give young quarterbacks problems with how, when and where they bring pressure and drop defenders into coverage. While the Dolphins’ speed creates a favorable matchup offensively, I like the under on Ewers throwing two touchdowns, as he has yet to throw one in 2025.
Dalton Wasserman (8-8)
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 225.5 passing yards (-120 Fanatics)
Lawrence has been the NFL’s hottest quarterback over the past month and has eclipsed this total in each of his past five games. That includes a 244-yard performance against this week’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, just three weeks ago. The Colts’ pass defense has collapsed in recent weeks due to injuries and poor performance, making it reasonable to expect Lawrence to stay hot in Week 17.
Ben Linsey (11-5)
TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals: Over 6.5 receptions (-130 BetMGM)
McBride has seen more targets this season than every player in the NFL except Ja’Marr Chase and has recorded seven or more receptions in seven of his past 10 games. He now draws an elite matchup against Cincinnati, the only defense in the NFL to allow more than 100 receptions to opposing tight ends this season, in a game with a 52.5-point total. The spot sets up well for a big McBride performance.
Mason Cameron (5-10-1)
QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: Over 220.5 passing yards (-110 Fanatics)
After adding the highest-graded throw of the 2025 NFL season to his résumé, the sky appears to be the limit for Caleb Williams and this Bears offense. With the 49ers up next, Ben Johnson vs. Kyle Shanahan is shaping up as an offensive showcase between two of the game’s top playcallers, creating ideal conditions for a shootout with the game total currently sitting at 52.5 points.
Williams should hold a big-play advantage against the 49ers’ zone-heavy coverage scheme. His 17 big-time throws against zone coverage rank fourth most in the NFL, a notable figure considering San Francisco’s coverage unit just allowed 277 passing yards to 44-year-old Philip Rivers, fueled by seven receptions of 15 or more yards.
Max Chadwick (7-7-2)
WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles: Over 4.5 receptions (+148 FanDuel)
This prop currently carries a 52.7% chance of hitting with a 30.6% edge in our system. Smith has cleared this number in three of his past five games and is averaging 4.8 receptions per game this season. The Bills’ secondary has been average overall, ranking 17th in the league with a 57.1 team coverage grade. At nearly +150 odds, this stands out as one of the best bets on the board this week.
Gordon McGuinness (6-9-1)
QB Chris Oladokun, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 147.5 passing yards (-115 BetMGM)
Betting overs on a third-string quarterback is risky, and five quarterbacks have played full games against the Denver Broncos and gone under this total. However, it is worth noting that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs threw for 276 yards against Denver earlier this season. Kansas City will game-plan for Chris Oladokun this week, which should lead to a heavy dose of short passes and reliance on yards after the catch, and in a game the Chiefs are likely to be chasing, there should be ample opportunity for him to clear such a low number.
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